The Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs fixture in the 2022-23 NHL will take place on Tuesday, December 20 2022, starting at 7:00 p.m. ET. The kickoff time is 11:00 p.m. by GMT this day. The venue is Scotiabank Arena, Tampa.

Latest odds on betting sites

The Tampa Bay Lightning are priced with the odds of 2.60 (+160 American; 8/5 Fractional) to win the next match full-time, which equals an approximate probability of 38%. The Toronto Maple Leafs have an odds of 2.30 (+130; 13/10) to take two points before overtime. The chances of this outcome are approximately equal to 42%. Finally, the draw comes with the odds of 4.70 (+370; 37/10), which equals an approximate probability of 20%.

The latest odds for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs (December 20 2022):

• Over 6.5 goals — 2.25 (+125; 5/4)
• Under 6.5 goals — 1.75 (-133; 3/4)
• Asian handicap (+1.5) on Lightning — 1.45 (-222; 9/20)
• Asian handicap (-1.5) on Maple Leafs — 3.00 (+200; 2/1)

Match preview and statistics

The Toronto Maple Leafs are second in the Atlantic Division having three points more than the Lightning. They are the second-least conceding team with 2.41 conceded goals per game on average. This result is provided by Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray, who are the second and the fourth-best goalies with 92.9% and 92.4% saving percentages, respectively.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have six injured players. Morgan Rielly is one of the best defensemen in his team. He completed 16 assists in 20 played games in the 2022-23 season, but will not help his team due to the knee injury. Nicholas Robertson and Calle Jarnkrok, who are strong rotation attackers, will not play this time too.

The Maple Leafs have lost the last two games after an incredible win streak of four matches with three shutouts. In the most recent game, they were defeated by the Washington Capitals (2-5). Charlie Lindgren was a brick wall for his rivals with a 94.4% saving percentage. He was named the third star of that fixture. Auston Matthews was the best player for his team with a goal and an assist.

We have seen a total of over 6.5 goals in three of the last four matches with the Maple Leafs participating. The same total comes with the odds of 2.25 (+125; 5/4) this time.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have two injured players. Rudolfs Balcers will not play due to a lower-body injury. Mikhail Sergachev will be unlikely to participate in this fixture. He was the best defender in his team. Mikhail Sergachev scored five goals and made 22 assists in 28 matches and finished them with a +2 impact index.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have a three-point gap against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Atlantic Division, but they played two games less and will be able to overtake the Maple Leafs in the further matches. Tampa are the third most-scoring team in the 2022-23 season with 3.67 goals per game. This result is mostly provided by Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, who are the best scorers for the Lightning this season.

Jon Cooper’s men smashed the Montreal Canadiens (5-1) in the last match. Brandon Hagel was named the first star for ripping two ginos and making an assist. Steven Stamkos was the second star with two assists.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have scored 3.67 goals per game on average in the 2022-23 season. They are priced with the odds of 2.50 (+150; 3/2) to score at least four goals against the Maple Leafs.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs H2H

The Tampa Bay Lightning have won a single H2H match against the Toronto Maple Leafs (4-3 OT) in the 2022-23 season. Also, they had a close series in the playoffs, which was finished with a 4-3 score in favour of the Lightning.

Lineups and key players

Tampa Bay Lightning projected starting lineup:

• Andrei Vasilevskiy
• Victor Hedman
• Haydn Fleury
• Brayden Point
• Nikita Kucherov
• Steven Stamkos

Nikita Kucherov scored a goal and made an assist in the most recent win over the Montreal Canadiens. Also, he is the fourth-best forward in the 2022-23 season with 12 goals and 35 assists.

Toronto Maple Leafs projected starting lineup:

• Ilya Samsonov
• T. J. Brodie
• Mark Giordano
• Mitch Marner
• Auston Matthews
• John Tavares

Auston Matthews is the best scorer for his team. He has scored 16 goals and has made 21 assists in the 2022-23 season. In the most recent game, he scored took part in all scored goals receiving two points.

Prediction and betting tips

The Toronto Maple Leafs have won nine of the last 12 matches, but have lost the last two in a row. Also, they were defeated in the most recent H2H fixture against the Lightning with a 4-3 score in overtime. Mitchell Marner scored two out of three goals in this game to finish this game as the second star, but his team did not finish the remaining attempts to score successfully.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have won seven of the last eight matches with the last five in a row. Also, they have scored at least four goals per match and have not conceded more than two goals per game in the last five fixtures. They look stronger than the Maple Leafs, but their victory looks unsure because the teams are approximately equal. I believe that we will see a total of over 6.5 goals, which has played out in seven of the last 11 H2H matches.

Betting prediction: Over 6.5 goals

Odds: 2.25 (+125 American; 5/4 Fractions)